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This study is for those who want to see potential crisis risks up to 2035 and prepare accordingly. If you can't predict the future, you can't plan for it. If this doesn't happen, unexpected crises will erupt and you will be caught unprepared. This has always been the case in the past. Terrorism? The Gulf Crisis? The 2008 Global Financial Crisis? The crisis with Russia over a military aircraft? A coup? A pandemic? An earthquake? The sector should now prioritize future analysis. Now, let's list the crisis sources we may face in the next 10 years.
Russia-NATO Tension The struggle to dominate the most strategic landmass in human history continues to intensify. The players are changing, but the goal of the war remains the same. This landmass is Eurasia. For whoever dominates here, rules the world. Today, the parties to the struggle for dominance over this landmass are NATO and Russia. The geopolitical tension between them is rising. The Ukraine War has pushed their relations into the most unstable period in recent times. NATO, on the one hand, is imposing economic sanctions on Russia, while on the other hand, it is providing military and financial support to Ukraine. This is a kind of endurance test.
Cybercrime Cyberattacks are one of the most troublesome risks of the digital age. This threat is becoming an increasingly larger, more complex, and more relentless geopolitical problem. Both individual organizations and strategic institutions of countries are among the targets of this risk. National security is quite fragile in the face of this risk. National infrastructures are becoming digitalized. Electricity grids, water supply networks, transportation systems, and financial channels are becoming increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks. A devastating cyberattack on these systems could create chaos at the national or even regional level. The repercussions of persistent cyberattacks can have a broad impact on financial markets and the economy. Government networks, private sector networks, and infrastructures are all open to hacking and espionage.
Strategic Competition Between the US and China A series of unresolved conflicts and tense competition is a severe source of geopolitical risk in 2024. The most dangerous of these is the tension between the US and China. On the one hand, the struggle for hegemony in the South China Sea, and on the other hand, the status of Taiwan, are two of the main reasons for the tension between the US and China. Moreover, excessive competition in finance and technology is widening the gap between the two giants and reducing the possibility of compromise.
Strengthening Nationalist Pragmatism and Anti-Globalization The anti-globalization movement is an obstacle to economic growth. It also negatively affects international relations. Russia's attack on Ukraine has driven Eurasian countries to close in on themselves and protect the interests of their own people. Nationalist pragmatism has encouraged governments to support their own industries. Countries have begun to raise protective walls against foreign competition. Domestic producers are being supported against the outside with subsidies. In the near future, we may transition to a closed world consisting of closed economies. This will mean unemployment, inflation, and scarcity at the local level. Economic crises always trigger political and social turmoil.
Climate Risk Climate risk has already exceeded the upper limit at which it can be called a risk. Global migration waves are one of the results of climate change. Climate risk is one of the most polarizing political issues. For example, mass migration destabilizes target countries. Migrants increase hatred among the settled population. Climate risk will have far-reaching impacts on national security and global stability, and the effects of climate change are already being seen in the form of extreme weather events, species extinction, rising sea levels, and increasing poverty in developing countries. Climate change has caused more frequent and severe weather events such as hurricanes, droughts, floods, and wildfires, damaging infrastructure and disrupting supply chains, leading to resource scarcity and economic instability.
Energy Security Having sustainable and accessible energy sources is vital for a country's economic prosperity. The climate, cybersecurity, and Ukraine war risks we have discussed so far have caused significant damage to global energy lines. Concerns about this have increased. Energy is one of the most frightening geopolitical risks for 2024. Until the Ukraine War, Russian gas was a cheap and abundant energy source for households and economies in Europe. This advantage has been lost. This has weakened Europe's economic competitiveness. The economies of these countries are showing strong distress signals for the medium term.
The COVID-19 Pandemic and Potential Future Epidemics The social and economic damage of the pandemic is still ongoing. On the other hand, mutations and new viruses are giving rise to new diseases. For life to function properly, the global health system must be secure. However, new viruses and mutations are threatening the system. Supply chains are also affected by these risks. The strengthening of mutations and new viruses makes global health fragile for 2024 and beyond. The pandemic has significantly affected global trade. Many countries have closed borders or banned travel to prevent the virus. This chaos keeps the possibility of quarantines or production interruptions strong in the future. Supply chains disrupted by the pandemic have begun to recover with the gradual easing of restrictions. But another risk has emerged: labor shortages. On the one hand, excessive demand for some products has also increased the risk of price increases. Shortages of products are causing black markets. The pandemic has also strengthened protectionism as some countries have started to apply trade barriers and tariffs. Such policies can increase geopolitical tensions and lead to a more fragmented global trade system, negatively impacting economic growth and geopolitical stability.
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